First Episode Psychosis: Predicting the Risks of Psychosis Using Administrative Data

This report describes key risk indicators associated with first episode psychosis (FEP) among youth and young adults between the ages of 12 and 25. The report also presents a model to identify individuals with the highest risks for experiencing FEP using administrative data. We found that mental health history and mental health service utilization are the strongest predictors of FEP. High-risk individuals often have encounters with mental health and substance use disorder treatment facilities, child welfare agencies, and hospital emergency rooms within six months before being first diagnosed with psychotic disorders. They are also likely to be receiving other social services such as Basic Food and to be involved with the criminal justice system.